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First your review of The Art Of The Long View: Planning For The Hereafter In An Uncertain Earth

I've been calling myself a futurist for the past five years, and for 5 years, I've been lying. Just no longer, considering I've read this book, which is every bit as a thought-provoking as Scientific discipline Fiction for Prototyping proved disappointing. Peter Schwartz is one of the founders of the Global Business Network consulting firm, and honed his skills designing scenarios for Shell Oil in the 1980s. In The Art of the Long View, he makes a strong case for the utility of scenario planning, explains how t I've been calling myself a futurist for the by five years, and for five years, I've been lying. But no longer, because I've read this book, which is every flake as a thought-provoking as Scientific discipline Fiction for Prototyping proved disappointing. Peter Schwartz is one of the founders of the Global Business organisation Network consulting house, and honed his skills designing scenarios for Shell Oil in the 1980s. In The Art of the Long View, he makes a strong example for the utility of scenario planning, explains how to develop a proper futurist mindset, and how to create your own scenarios.

Scenario planning is non predicting the time to come. Rather, information technology is almost challenging the official future, and the assumptions that underlie information technology. Scenarios force y'all to examine your unspoken beliefs and values, the testify supporting them, and how y'all might react in the future. An organization that includes scenario planning in its process is better able to react to rapidly changing weather condition, and less likely to exist rendered slowly obsolete through technological change.

Scenario planning is inherently interdisciplinary. A scenario program has to include technological, economic, cultural, and political factors, also as individual psychology. Broad areas of noesis rather than deep and narrow research is amend suited at picking up on trends. The ideas and forces that most powerfully influence the future originate on the margins of gild, among the dispossessed, the utopian, or the just obviously weird. Finally, Schwartz includes a detailed, viii stage guide to using scenarios in your own organisation, with a good remainder of theories and examples. Perhaps the ultimate success of scenario planning is that information technology creates a shared language to talk about the future.

Scenario planning might not be near predicting the future, but a futurist who makes no predictions isn't very useful. The book was published in 1991, and some parts feel oddly anachronistic, like the Japanophilia, the groping towards a 'digital global teenager', and the absence of the War on Terror. On the other hand, he offers three scenarios for the world in 2005: New Empires focused on regional militarism, Market World with multicultural entrepreneurialism, and Modify Without Progress, where the wealthy hollow out states, and fear of losing what little remains prevents successful action. Change Without Progress is strikingly similar to the globe today, with our one%ers and 99%ers, paralyzed multinational bodies, and collapsing infrastructure.

Scenario planning is not a strict methodology that automatically produces valid results, it's an attitude towards the time to come that is based on wide understandings of historical forces and skepticism about the condition quo. The results will vary on the quality of the questions you can inquire, the data available, and the conversation you foster. But as far as crystal balls go, scenario planning is one of the best.

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Aug 25, 2011 Jill rated it actually liked it

Information technology's piece of cake for a book published in 1991 to experience dated, especially when the second last chapter of the book is titled "The World in 2005: Three Scenarios" and when the book references Mikhail Gorbachev. But Chapter 9 aside, The Art of the Long View is nonetheless a very relevant read for anyone looking at the medium to long term and wondering how they can position themselves and their organisations to see hereafter challenges. More so in these volatile times when information technology seems that we're not just confronted past It'southward like shooting fish in a barrel for a book published in 1991 to feel dated, especially when the second concluding affiliate of the book is titled "The World in 2005: 3 Scenarios" and when the volume references Mikhail Gorbachev. Simply Chapter ix bated, The Art of the Long View is even so a very relevant read for anyone looking at the medium to long term and wondering how they can position themselves and their organisations to run into futurity challenges. More then in these volatile times when it seems that nosotros're not just confronted by evolutionary changes in engineering science, demographic shifts etc, only also being buffeted by "blackness swans" - the economical meltdown in 2008, the tsunami in Japan, earthquakes in NZ, etc.

I must acknowledge that I was very sceptical about the procedure of "scenario planning", having been introduced to the concept a couple of years dorsum in some planning practice. The scenarios raised in some cases were so outlandish that virtually people's immediate instinct, including my ain, was to dismiss the scenario as ridiculous or fantastical (what would happen if engineering science became so advanced that employers commencement to supersede their workers with robots?). Reading Schwartz's book, I at present realise that it wasn't a problem with the methodology, information technology was a trouble with the facilitator. As Schwartz explains, "scenarios are stories most the style the world might plough out tomorrow, stories that can help us recognise and adapt to irresolute aspects of our nowadays surroundings....scenario planning is well-nigh making choices today with an agreement of how they might turn out". For scenarios to work, and by work, Schwartz doesn't mean that you accurately predicted how the time to come would unfold. Rather, a scenario works if the storyline is plausible and strikes a chord with decision makers, such that they learn to recognise developments signalling a shift from the electric current plot and change their behaviour accordingly.

Information technology's easy to dismiss scenario planning as mere storytelling and theatre. Indeed, Schwartz talks nigh how 1 can use powerful images - the illustration of a shattered Humpty Dumpty being used to illustrate the inability of OPEC to regain its former forcefulness - to seize people's imaginations and attending nigh the future. Just at its centre, scenario planning is nearly sensemaking - looking at myriad bits of information about the world, filtering them and trying to sympathise what they're telling you lot virtually how the earth is irresolute. A thought provoking read.

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Jun 17, 2007 Infromsea rated information technology did not similar it

Recommends it for: No ane

I hate not finishing a volume. I've only "not finished" 3 or four books in my life, this book really tested me to the finish. It's on the Navy recommended reading listing then I pulled it down and took information technology for a spin. Permit me sum it upward for you: think of all possibilities and what you lot would exercise should those possibilities come to light. Honestly, that's it. Don't waste you time, movement on. In that location is a neat bargain of attempting to back up the art of looking forwards and thinking of all possibilities with data bu I hate not finishing a book. I've only "not finished" 3 or 4 books in my life, this book really tested me to the end. It'southward on the Navy recommended reading list then I pulled it down and took it for a spin. Let me sum it up for you: call up of all possibilities and what you would exercise should those possibilities come up to light. Honestly, that'south it. Don't waste you time, move on. In that location is a nifty deal of attempting to back up the art of looking forward and thinking of all possibilities with data but honestly, this should have been a term paper or submitted to an online journal, there is not enough in that location to be a standalone championship.

TW

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I had major reservations about this book at kickoff. I've been deeply steeped in books like "Thinking Fast and Slow" https://world wide web.goodreads.com/volume/show/1... and "Think Twice" https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6... that warn about the dangers of our intuition and our penchant for developing a coherent narrative. Every bit I connected, the author emphasized the need to develop multiple scenarios and avoid latching on to i of them every bit your official or favorite prediction. He gave pretty solid guidance o I had major reservations about this book at first. I've been deeply steeped in books like "Thinking Fast and Slow" https://www.goodreads.com/book/bear witness/ane... and "Think Twice" https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6... that warn about the dangers of our intuition and our penchant for developing a coherent narrative. Every bit I continued, the author emphasized the need to develop multiple scenarios and avoid latching on to one of them every bit your official or favorite prediction. He gave pretty solid guidance on how to develop the scenarios and develop warning signs to hint which may be coming to pass. Thinking ahead about changes nigh people resist thinking about (such as "my worst nightmare") facilitates preparing for possible outcomes and making rational, deliberate decisions when the time comes. He also emphasized diverse and widespread participation in developing the scenarios, both to capture unanticipated influences, and to use them every bit a communication and collaboration tool. Predicting the future is useless unless your arrangement is prepared to act on those predictions. This is where the narrative effect has a powerful effect--vividly communicating the vision of the futurity then people understand it and it prepares them to change their behavior in anticipation of changes in the environment.

As the title suggests, the method has a lot of art and no assurances that a reader can replicate this technique in their organization for a number of reasons. It's hard to argue whether the technique works or not considering there are so many means information technology can go incorrect that accept cipher to do with the technique. The author warns of a number of these potential pitfalls. For case, this whole affair could autumn on its face if the senior leadership dominates the conversation or the organization does not buy into it. Every bit mentioned earlier, the narrative development procedure could be misused or pb people badly astray without watching for some of the cognitive glitches and biases Kahnemann warns near in "Thinking Fast and Irksome."

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A scrap like "Good Strategy Bad Strategy" in that it is fairly straightforward and discusses standard corporate planning and strategy fare. Again, nix as well earth-shattering, though to someone not familiar with this sort of scenario-based planning, it is a great introduction. For the more advanced reader or practitioner, it still has value insofar as it simplifies and codifies what good scenario-based planning is all nearly - better decision-making.

The most valuable insight in Schwartz's book is

A bit like "Good Strategy Bad Strategy" in that information technology is adequately straightforward and discusses standard corporate planning and strategy fare. Again, nothing too earth-shattering, though to someone not familiar with this sort of scenario-based planning, it is a great introduction. For the more than advanced reader or practitioner, information technology still has value insofar as it simplifies and codifies what good scenario-based planning is all well-nigh - better decision-making.

The virtually valuable insight in Schwartz'due south book is that the finish result is not necessarily an accurate picture of tomorrow, just ameliorate decisions about the future. (9) This is not to say that scenarios need non be realistic. On the opposite, Schwartz spends a peachy deal of time extolling the virtues of information-gathering (both regarding specific scenarios and in general) and emphasizes that a critical first pace in scenario building is determining driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties. For those familiar with military machine planning, those ought to await a lot similar Centers of Gravity, Assumptions, and Commander's Disquisitional Information Requirements.

His case on page 191, introducing the concept of "rehearsing the time to come," sums up the intent of scenario-based planning. He likens it to rehearsing for three separate plays at the same time and not knowing which one you volition perform until you walk out on stage opening night and must decide which play information technology is past looking at the scenery effectually yous. Scenario-based planning, hopefully, prepares y'all to deal with an uncertain future.

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Jan 04, 2014 Nicolas rated it really liked it

Shows its historic period, but well worth reading, sold on scenario-building.

I'chiliad reviewing the 1996 edition.

What the book does well.
Information technology's a great sales pitch for the concept of scenario-building. I'thousand sold on the idea.
Information technology's very outgoing and easy reading. At that place are a lot of anecdotes, asides about history, civilisation, and social observations. I appreciated Peter Schwartz'due south cracking powers of observation.
That said, the writing style is mostly in the course of anecdotes, almost of which will exist confusing to readers wh

Shows its age, just well worth reading, sold on scenario-building.

I'1000 reviewing the 1996 edition.

What the book does well.
Information technology's a great sales pitch for the concept of scenario-building. I'm sold on the idea.
It'south very outgoing and like shooting fish in a barrel reading. In that location are a lot of anecdotes, asides about history, culture, and social observations. I appreciated Peter Schwartz's keen powers of observation.
That said, the writing fashion is mostly in the form of anecdotes, nearly of which will be confusing to readers who did not grow up in the 80s. The book's age is a abiding lark.

In that location are a lot of fantabulous bookish level concepts on scenario-building, how information technology work, why it works, how to make it work. Most of it is summarized in the alphabetize, which is non to miss.

Overall, it's a great introduction to the concepts of scenario planning. Information technology has many flaws, only it'southward well worth reading.

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I oscillated betwixt 3 and five stars for this book. In general, the core concept introduced past Schwartz is a five-star concept: the thought of making scenarios is something I've done intuitively at various points in my career to think through the long-term trends that are driving diverse situations and so develop various concrete actions in the present, simply didn't take a linguistic communication to depict. And there were cardinal ideas around information diet, exploration versus exploitation inside expertise, I oscillated between three and five stars for this book. In general, the core concept introduced by Schwartz is a five-star concept: the thought of making scenarios is something I've done intuitively at various points in my career to retrieve through the long-term trends that are driving various situations and then develop various concrete actions in the present, merely didn't take a language to draw. And at that place were key ideas effectually data diet, exploration versus exploitation inside expertise, building professional and personal networks and more than which were quite helpful. But broadly, I recall that the book was slightly too long and focused on also many physical examples of the output of using the framework in practice rather than the nitty gritty details of actually implementing information technology. The idea was dynamite - the residual of the book less-and then. ...more

December 08, 2020 Blue Morse rated information technology really liked it

This book is not about predicting the future, rather information technology is about perceiving futures in the nowadays every bit a means to penetrate our assumptions and internal mental defenses. Put simply, this book is about how to accommodate and survive in an ever changing environment by asking the right questions through scenario based reasoning.

Schwartz unpacks a lot of themes in this book like the ability of narratives, multifariousness of thought, and organizational resiliency.

Nevertheless, arguably his best contribution is the met

This book is not most predicting the future, rather information technology is about perceiving futures in the nowadays as a means to penetrate our assumptions and internal mental defenses. Put simply, this book is about how to adapt and survive in an ever changing surround by asking the correct questions through scenario based reasoning.

Schwartz unpacks a lot of themes in this book like the ability of narratives, diversity of thought, and organizational resiliency.

Notwithstanding, arguably his best contribution is the method of questioning that helps us become to know "the shape of unfolding reality."

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Parts of this had phenomenal communication, particularly nearly how to construct and utilize scenarios. It was written in 1991 and some predictions came true (pandemic) and some were laughable. Looking forward to the distant hereafter of 2005 was weird.

Apr 18, 2020 Emmi rated it really liked it

I am merely trying to understand the theories and pragmatics of futuristic studies. This is the outset book, which I read later received a recommendation. I would say, this makes a simple understanding of scenario planning. Despite the fact that it was published in 1990s, I would say a beginner tin can sympathise how to see the long view with enough of examples.

Aug 13, 2018 Vikrant rated information technology really liked information technology

This book was written in 1991, but I found it tremendously useful even in 2018. I continuously wondered why this volume was not a prescribed text at my MBA schoolhouse. This has to rank as one the better books on strategy and future planning.

In the early 1970's Royal Dutch Beat out formed a unit chosen Group Planning. Atomic number 82 past Pierre Wack this group made scenario planning a function of the strategic process in the company. When OPEC caught the rest of the world by surprise by declaring an oil embargo in 1973, Beat was mentally prepared for a state of affairs like this and could take deportment that propelled them to go the largest company in the world. They had already thought through what they would do and how they would act if a scenario like In the early on 1970'due south Royal Dutch Crush formed a unit called Group Planning. Lead past Pierre Wack this group made scenario planning a office of the strategic process in the visitor. When OPEC caught the balance of the earth by surprise by declaring an oil embargo in 1973, Beat out was mentally prepared for a state of affairs like this and could have actions that propelled them to become the largest company in the world. They had already thought through what they would do and how they would act if a scenario like this would become reality. They knew the script.

At this fourth dimension Peter Schwartz was at Stanford developing methods for scenario planning and when Wack later on retired from Crush Schwartz was his successor. Today he is seen as a leading futurist. Afterwards leaving Shell, Schwartz co-founded the strategy firm Global Concern Network and every bit of 2011 he'southward responsible for strategic planning at Salesforce.com. This book is by many considered as the seminal work on scenario planning and the author wants to teach the readers how to plan for the hereafter and thus be prepared for whatever happens. I came into contact with "The Vanquish Way" as part of a contempo McKinsey presentation. The methods are still in employ.

"Run a risk means more things tin can happen than will happen." Even though the future is basically unknowable this doesn't mean we cannot fix for it. Scenario planning is a key tool in this respect. By creating frameworks that combine a number of complex drivers for change and causal links, scenarios can exist constructed that aid companies in their long term planning. By having discussed various scenarios of the future and having planned responses to them were they to become reality, the mental mindset of management becomes less dried and overconfident in what they might previously have considered as the most probable future. With the scenarios at manus it's further possible to have a sharper eye when looking for signs of which of the multiple futures that seams to be developing into reality.

The Fine art of the Long View is not really a practical handbook in how to perform the craft of scenario planning. Sure, the procedure is described hither and there in the text and the chapters are bundled in accordance with a scenario analysis, but the book is as much a celebrated business relationship of the strategic work in Beat during a menstruum of time, a biography of Peter Schwartz himself and a number of philosophical thoughts on forecasting and making plans for the future - although always with a firm belief that forecasting is possible and necessary. Quite a lot of the text regards the work of "futurists" plus the methods for and value of holding strategic discussions in companies. I found the volume a chip muddled and also a bit dated. The faith in the clairvoyance of corporate strategic planners has faded considerably since the 1990's. All the same, forecasting is still a big business concern. Overall I'chiliad in the author'south camp on using scenarios to liberate the mind from set notions just the book could have been much more stringent and helpful in guiding the reader. In the subsequently 1996 edition of the book a much-needed appendix chosen Steps to Developing Scenarios was added.

In the book, three scenarios for 2005 are laid out. This created the need for a follow up and in 2011 a 60-page text called Learnings from the Long View was published, discussing general lessons on forecasting learnt during the years (many that resonate well with the more recent findings of behavioural finance and group psychology), reviewing the onetime scenarios and as well crafting new ones for 2025.

The piece of work of Wack and Schwartz was surely groundbreaking at the fourth dimension and Beat out no doubt owes them a bang-up deal. For someone that is interested in scenario analysis in 2014 I would suspect there are several more gimmicky books that serve the purpose better.

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Aug 17, 2018 Jen rated information technology liked it

Really 2.5 stars, but Goodreads.

So this is an overview of how to exist a "futurist," which is someone who tries to anticipate how various changes in business concern, culture, and whatsoever else will affect the choices you make today. Schwartz draws generally on his work at Beat back in the 70s and 80s to talk about creating scenarios, which are narratives of possible futures. The information is solid, challenging the reader to consider if this happened, then what--it's not a hard concept, but not one that pe

Really 2.5 stars, but Goodreads.

So this is an overview of how to be a "futurist," which is someone who tries to anticipate how diverse changes in business concern, civilisation, and whatever else volition affect the choices you brand today. Schwartz draws mostly on his work at Beat out dorsum in the 70s and 80s to talk near creating scenarios, which are narratives of possible futures. The information is solid, challenging the reader to consider if this happened, so what--it's not a difficult concept, but not one that people lay out very frequently.

It was an interesting read, but i of the biggest drawbacks is that information technology's so very dated. Schwartz wrote this in the early 90s, which ways the world he's describing doesn't all the same have the Clinton impeachment, September xi, the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, the global financial crash of 2008, or the rise of far-right ideology in America, India, Britain, and many other countries. Schwartz is still talking about the possibilities of electronic networking around the world because the internet was still finding its feet at that signal and nothing of social media all the same existed. He spends some time praising the idea of virtual reality and what that will bring to things, which is mode far off of what VR really is these days.

That doesn't brand the book bad, only less useful. Schwartz has a futurecast scenario for 2005, which is now 13 years agone. Some of what he called is shut, and so manifestly his method works, simply much of information technology is altered by huge things he just could not take seen. Some great ideas, but bound to their fourth dimension, which is a bit unfortunate for a book nigh looking alee. Have the steps, leave the narratives.

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Sep 17, 2020 Jack rated information technology it was astonishing

The book utilized the notion of "scenario" to explain lots of phenomenons from business world, such as which business does well during which period of time which really fabricated sense to me.

A complete scenario session puts you on right business track. Just there is a prerequisite, and this is a big prerequisite - yous demand to practise a tons, tons, and tons of field research on what customer is actually looking for. You spend fourth dimension and energy to know that even during the hard economic times, people are still

The book utilized the notion of "scenario" to explain lots of phenomenons from business earth, such equally which business does well during which period of time which really fabricated sense to me.

A complete scenario session puts y'all on right business rails. But at that place is a prerequisite, and this is a large prerequisite - you lot need to do a tons, tons, and tons of field enquiry on what client is really looking for. You spend time and energy to know that even during the hard economic times, people are still wanting luxury-priced goods because of this and that, all of which you constitute in the scenario pre-inquiry, then y'all made the conclusion that under this scenario, expensive gardening tool business shall survive such recession menstruum.

I would say this, this volume does convey a adept corporeality of useful data and it's an old volume that "refreshes" relatively modern minds.

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October 25, 2018 CHAD FOSTER rated it really liked it

A very interesting book written in the early 1990s past noted futurist Peter Schwartz. Much of what the author offers parallels later on works by Danikel Kaheman and Gary Klein. Most notably, Schwartz describes his approach to building scenarios to change the manner that decision-makers in large organizations call up about future possibilities. As he notes, scenari0-building is non nigh prediction, it is virtually re-perceiving what MIGHT happen. Doing and then gets leaders beyond the stagnation of condition quos and A very interesting volume written in the early 1990s past noted futurist Peter Schwartz. Much of what the writer offers parallels later works past Danikel Kaheman and Gary Klein. Well-nigh notably, Schwartz describes his approach to building scenarios to change the fashion that decision-makers in big organizations recall about future possibilities. Equally he notes, scenari0-edifice is not almost prediction, it is nearly re-perceiving what MIGHT happen. Doing then gets leaders across the stagnation of status quos and the blinders that accompany cerebral bias. The finish of the book constitutes a chip of a "how to" transmission in approaching the of import topics described earlier - including the building of scenarios and having "strategic conversations" with others. Overall, an outstanding book. ...more

Feb 29, 2020 Jorė rated information technology really liked information technology

I enjoyed Schwartz arroyo to the scenario planning - "Using scenarios is rehearsing the future. You run through the faux events as if you were already living them. Y'all train yourself to recognize which drama is unfolding. That helps yous avert unpleasant surprises, and know how to human activity."
The valuable office of this book is an in-depth description of methods and ways of thinking adult in Crush for their strategic conversations. It'southward only what I was looking for.
Some of the illustrating stori I enjoyed Schwartz arroyo to the scenario planning - "Using scenarios is rehearsing the future. You run through the simulated events as if yous were already living them. You train yourself to recognize which drama is unfolding. That helps you avoid unpleasant surprises, and know how to act."
The valuable role of this book is an in-depth description of methods and ways of thinking developed in Shell for their strategic conversations. It'due south only what I was looking for.
Some of the illustrating stories are really squeamish, also examples of scenarios. Having in mind the book is written 30 y ago, those guys were really insightful about plenty of topics. Some other stories were harder to focus on, but I might get dorsum to them some other time.

It goes on my list of the top strategy reads

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May 31, 2017 J Brown rated it really liked it

This book is a must for anyone who needs the understanding of what the long hard hours are leading to at the end of the day. Once you accept defended yourself to your craft you can appreciate the ideas the Peter Schwatrz presents in The Art of the Long View. His explanation of deliberate practice is a dandy insight on how to focus and make the virtually of the fruits of a punishing workload. For those who are disciplined and/or fortunate plenty not to accept gone through the labor of deliberate practice This volume is a must for anyone who needs the understanding of what the long hard hours are leading to at the stop of the day. Once y'all have defended yourself to your craft you can appreciate the ideas the Peter Schwatrz presents in The Art of the Long View. His explanation of deliberate practice is a keen insight on how to focus and make the about of the fruits of a punishing workload. For those who are disciplined and/or fortunate enough not to take gone through the labor of deliberate practice realization, you may to find a sharpening word of advice among the knowledge presented. Have fun with this gem. ...more

Aug 22, 2017 Mohamed Yehia rated it actually liked information technology

The book is one of the classics in the strageic scenario planning technique every bit a more than effective manner of strategic planing than the traditional fixed way of seeing simply 1 future state & work towards it.

It talks about the origin of the discipline & the first projects that had successfully used this planing tool.

The books lays the foundations of this field of cognition in a really skilful way, with an easy to understand language away from any embegouty.

The process he describes is a bit onetime subsequently this

The book is one of the classics in the strageic scenario planning technique as a more effective way of strategic planing than the traditional fixed way of seeing only ane future state & piece of work towards it.

It talks near the origin of the subject & the first projects that had successfully used this planing tool.

The books lays the foundations of this field of knowledge in a actually good mode, with an like shooting fish in a barrel to sympathize language abroad from any embegouty.

The process he describes is a flake sometime afterwards this years. All in all I recommend the volume for anyone who wish to have a practiced introduction session virtually the subject.

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Dec 24, 2018 RRinDC rated information technology it was ok

This volume was probably precedent setting when published. On scanning through it in 2017, I idea it presented a proficient check list for bracketing a challenging event. Nevertheless, about futurists have incorporated the approach outlined in their assay.

Jan 20, 2019 Mare rated it did not similar information technology

Read this for school and I am not exactly certain why. I imagine my professor was moved by this book in 1990, merely all reference points are so very dated and reading a cocky-proclaimed futurist wax poetic near the technological advancements of Walkmen and fax machines in 2019 is painful.

Neat for armed forces

Must read for all current a futurity leaders of the military. This is how you develop strategic thinkers who may be positioned at the strategic, operational or tactical level.

A good give-and-take of the importance of scenario planning and the steps in developing scenarios. The book would have benefited from beingness a little less wordy and amend organized,avoiding multiple afterwords, appendices, etc.

This was an easy read and is definitively a "must read" for any futures specialist.
I managed to detect a few useful tips for improving my hereafter scenario work.
Notwithstanding the publication from 1997 contains examples that take get very outdated.
This was an piece of cake read and is definitively a "must read" for any futures specialist.
I managed to find a few useful tips for improving my future scenario work.
However the publication from 1997 contains examples that take become very outdated.
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Very good framework and procedure for making complex, long term, irreversible decisions.

Highlights importance of reading (and writing?) fiction, of imagination and inventiveness, and building diverse INTELLECTUAL teams.

Somewhat dated, but usable.

I read this book some fourth dimension agone to acquire more than about scenario planning. Successful scenario plans include anarchistic thinking and look at fringe technologies to identify different scenarios.

I found the book very useful in appreciating the concept of Scenario Planning. Accept since been using it to written report our own pandemic afflicted world.
I wish it had the tools more conspicuously defined.

Informative discussion of using scenario planning (story-telling) to develop alternative hereafter. While interesting, I recommend scanning the chapters for the strategic planning steps and skip the self-indulgent stories. A sample population of 1 does non constitute sufficient proof of effectiveness.

A bit too redundant and being nearly 27 years old also fabricated it a challenging read. This could have been a 20 page white newspaper or a cracking HBR article with the same data. The guy loves what he does and writes like it - in a long-winded fashion. I would think someone with a career in business would be more succinct.

Peter is the author of Inevitable Surprises (2003), a provocative look at the dynamic forces at play in the earth today and their implications for business organization and society. His kickoff book, The Art of the Long View(1991), is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning and was recently voted the No. i futures book by the Association of Professional person Futurists. He likewise co-authored The Long Boom Peter is the author of Inevitable Surprises (2003), a provocative look at the dynamic forces at play in the earth today and their implications for business organization and society. His starting time book, The Art of the Long View(1991), is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning and was recently voted the No. 1 futures book by the Association of Professional person Futurists. He too co-authored The Long Boom (1999), a vision for the world characterized by global openness, prosperity, and discovery; When Good Companies Do Bad Things (1999), an examination of and statement for corporate social responsibleness; and People's republic of china'south Futures (2001), which describes very different scenarios for China. He publishes and lectures widely and served as a script consultant on the films "The Minority Study," "Deep Impact," "Sneakers," and "War Games." Peter received a B.S. in aeronautical engineering and astronautics too as an honorary doctorate from Rensselaer Polytechnic Plant. ...more than

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